RAJAR - Q3 2011; "Here are the votes from the UK radio listeners..."

The latest UK listening figures are out, (RAJAR Q3:2011) and again we find out which stations are a little more 'tasty' than others. There are some nice headlines to be read, including the fact that listening via a digital platform is up again with 22.8 million people now tuning in to radio via a digitally enabled receiver; so that could be on DAB, on Digital Television or over the Internet. The growth of digital inevitably continues. If you want to read some posts about the changing nature of radio in the UK and the growth of digital businesses, you'd be hard pressed to find better analysis than that provided by two people who look forward to this day with an unbridled and somewhat unnatural enthusiasm, for which we are all grateful... Matt Deegan and Adam Bowie.

Meanwhile, the market I get asked about most whilst on my travels, London, sees another game of musical chairs. Last time Magic had the best of it in the commercial world, holding top spot in both Reach and Share, but nothing stays the same for long in this market. Capital have jumped back up to Number 1 in Reach, and Heart have leapfrogged the contenders to become Number 1 in Share.

'Reach' (or Cume for our American readers) always seems to be the most quoted of figures, so here are the Top 10 Commercial Stations in London based on Weekly Reach for Q3:2011

1. Capital London 2.17 Million

2. Heart London 2.02 Million

3. Magic 105.4 1.99 Million

4. Kiss 100 FM 1.70 Million

5. Classic FM 1.40 Million

6. LBC 97.3 841,000

7. Absolute Radio 771,000

8. talkSPORT 717,000

9. Smooth Radio 612,000

10. Choice FM London 562,000

If you add in the BBC, things look a little different...

1. BBC Radio 4 2.77 Million

2. BBC Radio 2 2.29 Million

3. Capital London 2.17 Million

4. Heart London 2.02 Million

5. Magic 105.4 1.99 Million

6. BBC Radio 1 1.80 Million

7. Kiss 100 FM 1.70 Million

8. Classic FM 1.40 Million

9. BBC Radio 5 Live 1.31 Million

10. LBC 97.3 841,000

Capital no doubt benefited from the exposure that the Summertime Ball gave them, proving once again that visibility is a key ingredient in the mix... a theme I'll return to in the not too distant future. And the BBC once again show that they still produce quality radio, all be it with a rather expensive price tag.

It would be rude of me not to mention 'in dispatches' Absolute 80s. First, because it gives me another blatant opportunity to mention my weekly show on a Sunday morning from 9am-12pm that I present along with Dan McGrath, called 'Cafe 80s'. Subtle plug huh? However, that's not why I mention them on this occasion. It's because they have become the Number 1 commercial digital-only station in the UK, with 1.01 Million listeners a week. That's a rather healthy increase of just over 80% year on year. A rather 'peachy' result... so well done to all the team there.

Finally, if you're that way inclined, you can look at some pretty graphs for all stations on Media UK.

Right - that's enough 'numbers stuff' until February 1st 2012!

RAJAR Qtr 4 2010; "The numbers are in..."

So it was listening figures time again in the UK this week... and what did we learn?

Well, there are some nice headlines about 90% of the population listening to the radio every week and of course every group or station puts a shine on their particular figures, so no-one seems to be real loser (although of course they can’t all be right!)

A few things caught my eye.

First, I was disappointed at the rate of growth for Digital Listening with a rather modest 0.2% rise in the quarter to a 25% share of all listening via platform. As part of that, DAB was up 0.5% quarter on quarter, and still remains the most popular way of consuming digital radio (15.8% share), but I can’t help feeling that the momentum has slowed a little, and being a firm believer in the importance of radio to ‘go digital’ in future, it’s frustrating to see such slow progress.

What’s the answer? Well... more unique content and stations on DAB would help. It was encouraging to see the continued growth of stations like Absolute 80s (up to 665,000 weekly reach), Absolute 90s (cuming 295,000) and even the recently refreshed Planet Rock (with a new high of 827,000) doing so well. It shows that when there is great content or a different offer on Digital, listeners will gravitate towards it. Niche formats on digital seem to be the way forward. Just make sure your niche is big enough!

Talk radio is proving more and more popular in the UK with the growth of TalkSport as a format (now reaches over 3 Million a week), BBC 5Live gaining record audiences (now over 7 million), and 97.3 LBC in London (almost reaching 1 million a week), radio audience are lapping up mainstream and populist speech content. BBC Radio 4 has always delivered great audiences, but it’s a very different offering to the former 3. It would be great to see the success of speech radio in a local form in the commercial sector outside London; a trick has proved quite difficult to perform so far. Perhaps as some mainstream music radio does less and less speech, the ‘talk sector’ will benefit more in the future.

Meanwhile in London, Magic continue to outperform its commercial rivals taking top spot in reach and share. Its consistent blend of ‘light favourites’ and inoffensive links seems to be just the job for stressed out Londoners! As I write, they’ve just played Amy Winehouse - ‘Back to Black’ into Candi Staton ‘Young Hearts, Run Free’. Lovely ;-)

Capital are just behind Magic, and still sounding good. The benefit of their big TV campaign and the impact of the networking will be felt next quarter. Kiss have overtaken Heart into 3rd place in terms of reach, which is a great result for Kiss and will be naturally disappointing for Heart, who have really lost touch with Magic now. Next in Kiss’s sights will be Capital, and you can hear how tight the battle is between those two simply by listening to how close the music formats are in the daytime. Want Tinie Tempah, Bruno Mars, Rhianna or Mike Posner? Well either station will suffice right now!

So as the number crunchers do their thing, and stations up and down the UK have an explosion of PowerPoint and Excel, it’s nice to know that above it all, the UK is one of the most vibrant and creative radio markets in the whole world with some fantastic formats, and some superb broadcasters. There really is always something great to listen to... and the continued growth of ‘listen again’ / on-demand / podcasts etc, means that you don’t even have to worry that you missed a particular show.

It’s radio that waits ‘till it’s wanted.

Now that’s Magic! ;-)

Reach or Share?

If you looked at last week’s RAJAR figures released in the UK, and perhaps read a few of the press releases, you may have been slightly confused as to who is Number 1 in London?

Well – nothing’s changed insofar as the devil is in the detail and if you’re doing well in one metric you shout about that... and if you’re doing well in another, you shout about that.

Magic 105.4 are number 1 commercial station in share, with 6.1% and Heart 106.2 are number 1 commercial station in reach, with 1.881 Million listeners a week

And although they don’t shout about it as much, as they’re perhaps a little more restrained about such crass self-promotion (due to the “unique way they’re funded”) BBC Radio 4 are actually the number 1 station in London in both share and reach, with 14.7% share and 2.380 Million listeners a week.

At breakfast time, Capital have the largest breakfast show with 1.231 Million listeners whilst nationally, Terry Wogan’s much publicised last quarter delivered 8.102 Million listeners.

The biggest surprise was the growth of London talk station LBC, which has overtaken Capital and Heart to become Number 2 commercial station in share terms, with a highly respectable 5.7%. There’s no doubt that LBC is the star performer and gets the teachers 'Gold Star'!

So what can we glean from all this?

Capital’s current format is always going to deliver stronger reach than share. CHR always tends to do that, due to the deliberately repetitive nature of things. The average hours of 5.5 a week are actually pretty good. But Capital has historically always been about reach, so that’s the most important metric for that station I believe. Remember...reach before revenue!

Heart’s format should allow it to generate more average hours and 5.7 a week feels a tad on the low side. As we know, their ‘variety’ position is more of a myth (sorry... marketing position) than reality, as they tend to play a pretty tight bunch of songs over a week. So perhaps they’re playing more of the reach game than the share game currently.

Meanwhile, Magic seem to have got the formula right and although they may not play significantly more tracks than Heart in any given week, the image of being a ‘you can listen to us for ages’ station seems to have cut through... hence the 6.1% share. Plus there's no real significant difference between them in terms of reach and the other 2 competitors.

Meanwhile LBC’s average hours are up at 13.6 a week! They’ve got a growing cohort (841,000) of fans who just love that station. I didn’t know London had that many cab drivers!! This figure compares really well with say BBC London, who have 7.4 average hours a week and actually beats BBC Radio 4 nationally, which is at a mere 12.6 a week.

Often it’s smaller or more niche stations that have really high average hours. LBC has some way to go if it’s to be Magic 1152 in Hull (15.2), 107 The Bee in erm.... Blackburn, I think (15.4). And finally, come on down Premier Christian Radio with average hours of 16.6 a week. I know it’s difficult to compete with GOD. And some of those sermons go on forever...

So reach or share? Which is more important? Well of course, the answer depends on which one you’re doing the best in... and whichever that is, that’s the most important!

Actually – they’re both important. Lots of listeners, listening longer. And in London, this time, without sounding like Paul Daniels, you’d have to say... “That’s Magic!”

"Give It Some... Hmmmm?"

Here's the new 'Heart' TV ad.

'Feel Good' or just 'Feel Bemused'? "Give It some Heart" or "Give It Some Cheese?" A 'smiley' branding job for Heart... or feel that it could as well be an ad for a new type of coffee... or a chocolate bar... or Class A drug?

Not quite sure it demonstrates 'music variety' particularly well... but it looks all shiny and colourful I suppose. I guess it's fairly inoffensive. A bit like Heart really.

Comments welcome!

"In The Naval"

Are you a navel-gazer? The definition of a navel gazer is “one who is extraordinarily self-absorbed with him or herself on any given issue; excessive introspection and reflection when action is more necessary”

Well, it’s an accusation that the Chief Executive of Global Radio, Stephen Miron, makes of the whole UK commercial radio industry, in an interesting article in today’s Media Guardian. He cites a lack of creative and commercial ambition in the sector, which he believes has resulted in UK commercial radio lacking the essential momentum required to move forward.

There’s no doubt that Global Radio are ‘on a mission’ to redefine the meaning of ‘local radio’ in 2009, with the next stage of the Heart rollout having just occurred. Whether you think that’s a good thing for the industry or not is a matter of opinion, and time will tell if it’s the right thing to do both in terms of audience and ad revenue.

There is one comment I thought fairly amusing in the interview, where Miron talks of the mainstream nature of BBC Radio and advertisers desires...

The idea, he says, is to create a commercial rival to Radio 2. "We have advertisers who say, we wish we could advertise on Radio 2. Well now you can - it's called Heart."

I’m not sure if Stephen has listened to Radio 2 lately (if at all)... but last time I checked, it didn’t sound anything like Heart. It’s an ambitious aim to become comparable to a station that had a budget last year of £51.3 Million, but “a man’s reach should exceed his grasp” and all that. So to be sure, I thought I’d double check, and start with an obvious area ... current music. So you can see I’m not ‘pulling the wool’, here are the 2 current playlists to inspect;

Heart Playlist
Alesha Dixon - Breathe Slow
Annie Lennox - Shining Light
Beyoncé - Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)
Beyoncé - Halo
Beyoncé - If I Were A Boy
Enrique Iglesias - Takin' Back My Love
Girls Aloud - The Loving Kind
Girls Aloud - The Promise
James Morrison - Please Don't Stop The Rain
James Morrison feat. Nelly Furtado - Broken Strings
Jason Mraz - I'm Yours
Lily Allen - The Fear
Pink - Please Don't Leave Me
Pink - Sober
Ronan Keating - Time After Time
Seal - It's Alright
Shontelle - T-Shirt
Take That – Greatest Day
Take That - Rule The World
Taylor Swift - Love Story
Zarif - Let Me Back

BBC Radio 2 Playlist
A LIST
LUNIK - Everybody Knows
TONY CHRISTIE - Every Word She Said
PAUL CARRACK - No Doubt About It
TAKE THAT - Up All Night
SUGARLAND - All I Want To Do
JAMES MORRISON - Please Don't Stop The Rain
THE SCRIPT - Talk You Down
ALAIN CLARK - Father & Friend
BEYONCE - Halo
JON ALLEN - In Your Light

B LIST
BAT FOR LASHES - Daniel
BARRY MANILOW - Open Arms
LIONEL RICHIE - Just Go
ZARIF - Let Me Back
PET SHOP BOYS - Love etc.
*NEW* DUKE SPECIAL - Sweet Sweet Kisses
DOVES - Kingdom Of Rust
*NEW* JASON MRAZ - Make It Mine
FLEET FOXES - White Winter Hymnal
SHENA - Can't Stop The Rain
A R RAHMAN & THE PUSSYCAT DOLLS - Jai Ho!

C LIST
*NEW* MADELEINE PEYROUX - Instead
STEVE CRADDOCK - Falling Rocks
*NEW* AL GREEN - Just For Me
COLIN BLUNSTONE - The Ghost Of You And Me
BEN MONTAGUE - Can't Hold Me Down
IMELDA MAY - Big Bad Handsome Man
*NEW* BENJAMIN TAYLOR - She's Gone
AC/DC - Anything Goes / Big Jackeatest Day

So... the eagle eyed amongst you no doubt spotted that a massive ‘3’ of the songs on Heart’s playlist are also on Radio 2’s playlist 2. That’s around a 10% crossover. Blimey. “It’s practically identical guv’nor”... apart from the 90% difference that is, of course.

I won’t even dare to compare the speech content, but it’s suffice to say that today on BBC Radio 2 when Jeremy Vine was discussing the positive environmental impact of water metering designed to help protect limited supplies of water and reduce consumption, Toby Antis on Heart was forward promoting the fact that “Candi Staton’s coming up”.

As Chrissie Hynde famously once said.. ‘Don’t get me wrong’... I think Heart is a really strong brand and a fantastically well produced commercial radio station. But sorry Stephen Miron... Radio 2 it ain’t!

What could posses a man to make such a bold claim as to liken output of BBC Radio 2 with Heart? It sounds like one of those ridiculous claims that only an awful newspaper like ‘The Mail on Sunday’ would concoct! Hang on a minute... what role did Stephen Miron used to have? Oh... he was Managing Director of ‘The Mail on Sunday’...

Enough said.

McRadio

Rebranding and re-launching radio stations seems to be all the rage at the moment.

I spend a good deal of time working in Denmark with the fine people at Radio 100FM. The rival national commercial station that was formerly known as TV2 Radio (originally named after the parent company, TV2!) has been recently bought by SBS, and just re-launched as ‘Nova FM’. Not sure in a fast moving digital world I would have stuck the letters ‘FM’ in the title of the station, but there you go.

“Virgin Radio soon to be known as Absolute Radio” has set a date when it will fully become Absolute Radio… September 29th for all you date junkies.

And, as widely predicted, Global Radio in the UK recently announced that around 30 of their newly acquired stations will be re-branded as Heart, and have lots of networked programming. This will, it is claimed, provide a much clearer brand for potential advertisers to buy into. It probably will.

So, it will be interesting to see how heritage names such as Fox, Invicta, GWR, 2-Ten FM and Chiltern handle the transformation process on air. Having “a conversation” with your listeners is the very modern and transparent way that Absolute Radio has done it. Asked by listeners why they had to change the name, they answer…

“The old one wasn't ours, it was lent to us. That means we could not do all the other things we wanted to do, in spinning off the radio station into other areas which we feel you wanted. Our new name, which we own, means we are freer to do what we want, and it also says that we're re-inventing ourselves.”

Fair enough. I buy all that, particularly the last bit… (plus the fact that it would have cost an arm and a leg to continue ‘renting’ the name from Branson, but I genuinely don’t think that was the main reason they ditched it.)

So, how will Global approach the similar dilemma of ‘name change’, particularly when many of the stations are familiar local brands and have been on the air since the early 80’s. Of course, nothing has the divine right stay the same forever, but how do you convince local listeners that it’s in their interests that you need to deliver a consistent brand to national advertisers, therefore you must remove most of the local programming apart from Breakfast and Drivetime, and rename their familiar local brand, with a quasi-national brand named after a vital organ.

There is of course the argument that much of commercial radio in the UK needs reinvention, and this is one of the only realistic ways to do it. Centralised control with some local management, product consistency and a uniform approach to marketing and promotions; A kind of ‘McRadio’ if you like. Hmmm…

Will listeners like this homogenised approach to local radio? Is there an unavoidable inevitability about it? And will the DJ’s have to wear brown uniforms and get stars on their badges for doing good local links? We shall see… but the most fascinating part of this is still to play out. How will the changes be communicated on-air. Or maybe they haven’t thought that far ahead yet?! Any ideas welcome!!

'Networking' - A Trump Card?

As soon as UK media regulator Ofcom announced in February that it was relaxing the rules on the amount of local programming it required stations to broadcast, it was only a matter of time until the bigger radio groups took advantage of this. ‘Global Radio’ were the first out of the traps with the move to network all output across Heart, aside from breakfast, mid-morning and Drivetime. ‘Galaxy’ have kept local Breakfast and Drivetime shows, but networked everything else.

Next was GCap (soon to be Global, so they’re pre-empting the inevitable really) who announced a new 3 hour daytime show across the One Network, details of which are still a little sketchy to be honest! And recently the three Xfm stations in London, Manchester and central Scotland announced they’re going to network another three hours of programming on weekdays, taking the local output from 10 hours to 7 hours. Lots of smaller UK radio groups are also taking advantage of the rule change and going a step further to relocate stations in central ‘broadcasting hubs’, with the obvious economies of scale that this brings.

So far Bauer have resisted the temptation to go for any daytime networking, with their ‘In Demand’ evening show being the only real networked programme. So what’s the deal? Is this good for listeners… good for the radio station… good for advertisers? Who benefits?

Yesterday, at the Radio 3.0 Conference in London, outgoing GCap Chairman Richard Eyre had some thoughtful insights about networking.

"Piping in a mega-DJ from London would mean sacrificing the key element of local radio: localness. The economics of radio in 2008 will mean that companies will not be able to resist. But it's still handing over one of our best assets to reduce costs. The economics say delocalise. But the relationship says keep it local."

With comments like that, it seems a shame that he’s the outgoing chairman really. I can’t help thinking that despite the best efforts of some radio executives to convince me otherwise, it’s all about saving money in the short-term during an economic downturn, and not thinking about the long-term effect of stripping localness from radio. I’m sure Global Radio have in their top drawer a plan to turn lots of their newly acquired GCap stations into the ‘Heart’ brand. How long before we hear a station’s positioning change to … “Fox FM – The Heart of Oxfordshire”. And we all know what comes next.

It’s quite easy to be snobby about the quality of some stations when you have a portfolio that includes well resourced brands like Heart and Capital on your books. And yes, the quality of the smaller stations could be improved in many places. But is the answer just to network this ‘mega-DJ’ from outside the area. Surely investing in training and development of new talent and programming skills on a local level is a more important long term objective? Go to places like Liverpool, Manchester, and Leeds and imagine a world where Radio City, Key 103 and Radio Aire were pseudo-national stations with perhaps a local breakfast show as the only indicator of their true parentage. Sure you can use smoke and mirrors all you like to give the impression the output is ‘local’… but for me, you can’t beat the real thing. It doesn’t matter how good your smoke screen is, because local radio is best when it’s local… and not pretending to be local.

The next 12 months will see the inevitable ‘character-stripping’ out of many truly local stations, with some of their output replaced with no doubt well-produced, slick, but rather soulless programming. The radio landscape will be painted magnolia… designed to cause least offence, but not engender a reaction of any kind. Is this the type of local radio listeners want?

One of the great clichés about succeeding at programming a local / regional station is “Play the local card”. It seems that the deck is about to be rigged.

"What's the Story, Morning Glory?" / "Spinning Around" - RAJAR Qtr 4, 2007

So what did the RAJAR fairies deliver for Qtr 4 2007 then? What was the big talking point this quarter? And how was it spun?

Well, it’s difficult to get away from the continued dominance of BBC Radio against commercial radio (perceived and real!). Chris Moyles record 7.31 Million listeners is an excellent result… no doubt about it, and he’s within shouting distance of Terry Wogan on Radio 2 with just 420,000 listeners in it. If, as I predict he will, overtake Wogan, then we can expect the Radio 1 PR machine to go into overdrive!!

It was interesting to see how commercial radio was fighting back against the might of the BBC in terms of PR. (As we know, sometimes the figures are irrelevant, merely what do stations want readers to believe!) In particular, the point that Johnny Vaughan on Capital and Jamie & Harriet on Heart both beat Moyles in London.

I won’t bore you with the figures (this time around!) but even when you fiddle around with the different times the shows are on, there is certainly a preference for commercial services at breakfast verses Radio 1.

Mark Browning, PD of Heart 106.2 was quoted on Media Guardian saying:

"The London market tells us that if commercial radio was freed up from the regulatory burden it is constrained by so it could share best practice across the UK then the real winner would be the listener. Where listeners have a strong commercial radio proposition, and a strong BBC, as they do in London they are choosing commercial radio. We need Ofcom to let us give listeners more choice and better commercial radio."

This is not an accidental ‘off the cuff’ remark by the very eloquent Mr. Browning! It seems that at any opportunity commercial radio is going to lobby Ofcom for a more liberal approach to what it can and can’t do, with the endgame surely being a networked ‘Jamie and Harriet’ and ‘Johnny and Denise’. The theory being that only networked big name talent will be able to compete with Radio 1 in local markets. It’s an interesting thought and one I will expand upon in a future posting.

Meanwhile, there were the usual ups and downs for most stations / groups and naturally they tried to make the best of what they had in their press releases. There’s an interesting article in today’s Guardian where journalist Paul Smith discusses the tactics used by stations to put a positive shine on their figures. I’m surprised that he feels so surprised himself! (I suspect he's not that suprised actually!). Of course stations try to make things sound good!! Far be it from me to suggest that journalists (even in The Guardian) sometimes try to make a story sound more sensational than it actually is!! It’s a good piece nonetheless, and shows that PR is still such an important weapon in the battle for listeners and the figures will keep spinning!

RAJAR Qtr 3 2007

Now that the dust has settled on another set of listening figures in the UK, and the metaphorical handbags are returned to the closets, who were the winners and losers and what have we learnt this time around.

Well, the big bun fight was (as predicted) over the Breakfast Show figures in London. Who really is number one?

Capital are bullishly claiming that Johnny Vaughan is clearly number one, as his show has more listeners during the entire duration of the show. This is true... and from 6:30am till 10am there are 1.024 Million listeners.

"Stop cracking it up right there..." cries a rather bemused Dr Fox, Foxy, Neil Fox.... you know the guy. Magic's argument is that their show runs from 5:30am till 9am, and while both shows are on at the same time, 6am - 9am... Magic beats Capital. For the record, the figures are...

Magic - 885,000
Capital - 880,000
Heart - 810,000

So, who's right. Well, I feel that common sense should take over at this stage. You have to measure like for like, between 6 and 9am. Otherwise, Capital or any other station indeed, could run their breakfast show from 5am till 10:30am, and bingo... the reach of the show has increased again!

Frankly, it's all a bit of a storm in a tea cup, as the lead is so minimal versus the accuracy of the ratings data, that it could be reversed with the stroke of a pen next time round.

However, Magic are proud to claim number one commercial reach position and number one breakfast show, whilst Capital are keen to gain the PR advantage that having the number 1 morning show brings you, especially when your share figure has come off the pace of the top two.

It just shows you how fierce this battle is, and I have no doubt that the handbags will make another appearance in 3 months time!

And now... news in brief!

Well done to Choice FM who now have 611,000 listeners a week. They're really delivering a focused urban product which knows it's target audience so well.

Nice try to Xfm whose 'no DJ's in the day' thing (Called Xu... or something suitably cool) has contributed to a slump from 2% to 1.2% share. Oops! Never did like the idea!!

Moyles and Wogan are down a bit... but I don't see either of them being unduly worried!

The Hits continues to be a great success story for EMAP with 1.49Million listeners. It shows you what having a focused product on the right platforms can do! Well done guys!

With digital listening accounting for 15% of listening time in the UK, the future is firmly in the digital arena... a point I'll expand on during my session at this years NAB in Barcelona next week.

Global Dominance?

Richard Parks' appointment as Executive Director of the new Global Radio consortium is an interesting development for a number of reasons.

From a programming perspective, How will Magic 105.4 fare without him? How much of it's success was derived from the magic-dust that he sprinkled on the output... and how much was derived from the focused, dedicated and hard working team at Mappin House. (Let's remember that Graham Dene is moving over to Smooth Radio shortly too, so it may be hard for them to keep the momentum up losing a couple of key staff... despite being Number 1 in London!!).

Parky going over to the company that owns Heart, one of Magic's main competitors, will no doubt benefit Heart a great deal, with all the knowledge that Richard will bring with him!

As Global Radio sets out its stall, the reports of a deal to be done with Richard Branson to buy Virgin Radio back are also circulating.

Suddenly Global Radio has a potential group made up of the Heart, Galaxy and LBC branded stations, plus Virgin Radio too! And it's obviously very serious about it's ambition when it recruits someone whom many people see as the "Uber-Daddy" of Commercial Radio for a place on its board.

(By the way... Will the new Exective Director of Global Radio discuss the potential aquisition of Virgin Radio with the Virgin Radio Chief Executive? "Hello son.... Hello Dad!".)

The commercial radio consolidation game is still in full swing, and I predict there's a lot more to come too!

RAJAR Qtr 1 2007 - The Post Mortem Part 2 - London

The London market is taking on a familiar pattern at the moment with Heart and Magic engaged in a titanic battle for the top commercial station in London.

Both have held their 'Number 1 in London' status and lost it. But who has the upper hand? Well, interestingly if you look at an average of the share figures over the last 2 years dating back to Qtr 1 2005, Magic averages at a 5.7%, while Heart averages at a 6.0%. Magic have only achieved anywhere in the 7's once, while Heart have managed it twice in last 2 years and their impressive 7.1% is the largest share figure generated by either of these 2 broadcasting adversaries. 1-0 to Heart on share.

And what about the reach 'glass ceiling'? Well - Magic have achieved a 1.867 Million record in the same period and Heart have been 'oh so close' to the (dare I say "magic") figure of 2 Million, cume-ing a 1.911 Million back in Qtr 3 2005. So based on share and reach, it's Heart 2 - Magic 0.

Magic may have nudged back in the lead with this book, but to continue torturing the football-ing analogy... this match has a long time left to play and any pundit would predict that Heart will be back on top before too long.

Capital got an important PR and morale booster of regaining the 'Number 1 Commercial Breakfast Show'. However, the share figure dipped to a new low of 4.6%... considerably lower than either Heart or Magic have ever been in the last 2 years. The new Capital format feels to me more like Radio 1 than anything else on the dial currently, and taking them on will prove tricky when Radio 1 is so strong in London at the moment, chalking up a 1.65 Million reach and 6.7% share in the London TSA.

Kiss didn't capitalise on the closeness with Capital in reach from the previous quarter and dipped back to 1.35 Million, but they're trending up.

So, what does it all mean? The latest set of figures continue to show that playing in some part of the 'AC' arena is essential if you're to currently have any traction in the London commercial radio market. A rejuvenated 'Smooth' will take some time to get going, and may eat into the 12 or so AC share points up for grabs in the market... which could open up some room for Capital, if the audience feel they have found the right format.

Final honourable mention goes to Kismat Radio, who have a year on year reach increase of 71%! A GCap takeover is only a matter of time!